Renowned pro-XRP lawyer, Jeremy Hogan, who has been at the forefront of providing insights into the Ripple vs. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) case over the last years, recently shared a detailed breakdown of possible outcomes in the ongoing legal battle.

In his most recent tweet, Hogan, known for his in-depth YouTube video updates, stated, “I’m seeing some confusion as to what could happen next in the Ripple v. SEC case now that the Judge denied an interlocutory appeal. Sooo, I have outlined every possibility and provided the exact chance of each possibility happening and how long each would take. Exactly.”

Hogan elucidates that, following the unfavorable summary judgment and the denial of the interlocutory appeal, the SEC finds itself in a precarious position with limited favorable choices. While the SEC still holds its right to appeal, it can only exercise this option after the case reaches its conclusion with a “final judgment”—a milestone potentially far off on the horizon.

Scenario #1 An Extended Battle With Uncertainties

The first scenario Hogan tackles is the SEC’s decision to press forward with a trial targeting individual defendants, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple Executive Chairman Chris Larsen, slated for April 21, 2024.

Diving into the nuances, Hogan highlighted the potential pitfalls this path may present for the SEC: “The Judge has left only the hardest part of the case for trial. The SEC could easily take an ‘L’ at trial and have some of its dirty laundry aired at the same time.” If the SEC stubbornly sticks to this route, the timeline becomes stretched: an appeal isn’t expected to be filed until 2025.

Delving deeper, Hogan predicts that even after this waiting period, the appellate ruling might not materialize until 2026. In a scenario where the SEC clinches an appeal victory, further complications arise. The case would likely revert to Judge Analisa Torres for additional legal proceedings, potentially deferring the ultimate resolution until June 2027. Hogan places the likelihood of this playing out at a (jokingly) precise 39.456%.

Scenario #2: Settlement Followed By Ripple Showdown

In Hogan’s second outlined scenario, he delves into the possibility that the SEC might decide to reach a settlement with the individual Defendants before striving to secure a final judgment against Ripple Labs, which would then be subject to an appeal. He assigns this scenario a probability of 32.113%.

Hogan notes, “This is the SEC’s best option.” However, his skepticism shines through as he adds, “For that reason, I doubt they do it.” By choosing this path, the SEC would accelerate its journey to the appellate court by approximately 9-12 months, saving considerable resources and avoiding the complexities of an arduous case.

Following settlements with the individual defendants, the focus would shift to “remedies” litigation, a phase that Hogan points out would be time-consuming. He estimates this litigation process would stretch deep into 2026, pinpointing a potential end date: “August 14, 2026, to be exact.”

Scenario #3: A Holistic Settlement

In the third scenario detailed by Hogan, he considers the prospect of the SEC opting for a comprehensive settlement, encompassing both Ripple and the individual Defendants. He mentions the feasibility of such a settlement occurring in a conference, potentially one mandated by the Judge. However, Hogan adds a note of caution, highlighting, “the SEC has shown very little desire to compromise thus far.”

From Hogan’s vantage point, the settlement appears to be an advantageous choice for the SEC. He articulates, “Settlement is a good option for the SEC. It gets to publish another ‘win’ and collect a big check from the bad guys.”

Adding a dimension of judicial clarity to this pathway, Hogan points out that the Judge facilitated this option by emphasizing that her verdict pertains solely to the particulars surrounding XRP. As for the probability of this scenario transpiring, Hogan pegs it at 18.987%.

In his meticulous breakdown, Hogan also allows room for unpredictability, conceding that a completely unforeseen event could transpire, attributing to it an 8.675% chance.

Concluding his detailed insights, Hogan encapsulates the complex dynamics at play: “On paper it’s a split decision but the SEC has no good options now. The power balance shifted.”

At press time, XRP traded at $0.5168.